The Significance of Day 2 Draft Picks: A Preview of a Few Late Round Prospects
After observing an unprecedented number of trades involving high caliber players throughout the 2022 off-season, I would like to remind you that NFL rosters are built through the draft. The best teams are successful at utilizing the draft to select and develop their core pieces, while adding key free agents to fill one or two holes. There are seven total rounds in each NFL Draft, and while it is relatively common for front offices to hit on first round talents, what separates the great teams from the mediocre is their ability to draft hidden talents in the later rounds of the draft.
For example, if we look at the defending Super Bowl champions, the Los Angeles Rams appear to dispute my claim as they acquired a number of star players through trades such as Jalen Ramsey, Andrew Whitworth, and Matt Stafford. However, home grown talents like Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, Taylor Rapp, and John Johnson III have all heavily contributed to establishing the Rams’ foundation as a franchise. Among the second list, Aaron Donald was the only player to be drafted in the first round. Los Angeles still relies on their later round draft picks to solidify their roster and provide depth for the team.
In preparation for the NFL Draft, colleges and universities host Pro Days to showcase their prospects as NFL scouts attend and watch. As the NFL only invites a certain amount of prospects every year to the Combine, Pro Days are an important, and often times the only opportunity for prospects who were not invited to display their skills and physical measurements. Do keep in mind that many of the highly rated prospects who recorded their measurements at the Combine, may have opted out of doing so at their Pro Day, which affects who is included in my graphs below.
This report will be primarily focusing on the Day 2 prospects from the Power 5 Conferences, with an emphasis on the draft needs of the Buffalo Bills.
Martin Emerson Jr., Cornerback, Mississippi State
A 6'2", 203 lbs CB from Mississippi State, Martin Emerson is coveted for his size and length which is ideal to defend taller and larger receivers. A great tackler in space, teams might also look to select Emerson to improve their run blocking. With a wingspan of over 80 inches, and an arm length of 33 inches, Martin can use his ability to keep distance between the receiver and disrupt the receiver to cause pass breakups. In 3 seasons with Mississippi State, Emerson recorded 152 tackles and 15 pass deflections.
After watching his game tape, Emerson struggles to keep up with fast, shifty receivers due to his slower speed. Therefore, he would not perform as well in man coverage and will be most effective in a Cover 3 scheme as a boundary corner back, with help over the top from safeties. However, even if there were instances where Martin was falling behind the receiver, his length and size was good enough to compensate for the speed disadvantage which caused pass breakups. I would not rely on him to be a team’s number one corner back, but a few landing spots that may serve best fit for Emerson include the Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, or the Cleveland Browns.
Kyle Phillips, Wide Receiver, UCLA
Standing at 5'11", 181 lbs, Kyle Phillips is one of the more overlooked receivers in this class. Built like a prototypical slot receiver, he embodies many characteristics NFL scouts look for in their slot receivers. With an exceptional route-running ability to take advantage of man coverage and an open-field shiftiness to create yards after the catch, Phillips will perform well as a team’s designated back up slot receiver, and can surely develop into a starter.
Within the Pro Day measurements that evaluate agility and quick speed, Kyle Phillips recorded a 4.09 shuttle time as well as a 6.75 3 cone drill time.
The biggest concerns with Kyle are his speed, average separation burst, and small hand size. Although he is not the best slot receiver prospect in this draft class, I think that Phillips is undervalued among the later round prospects. A team like the Buffalo Bills who seeks to replace Cole Beasley, New Orleans Saints, or Indianapolis Colts might consider drafting Phillips if they miss out on the receivers earlier in the draft.
Expected Points Added (EPA) has become an integral part of discussion within the football analytics community. EPA is a measure of how well a team performs relative to expectation. For example, consider the Bills start with the ball first-and-10 from their own 25-yard line, where its expected points would be about 1.06. If Josh Allen throws a 15-yard completion, making it first-and-10 on the BUF 40-yard line, where the expected points is now 1.88, the EPA of that play would be 1.88–1.06 or 0.82.
Abram Smith, Runningback, Baylor
At 6'0", and 213 lbs, the Baylor RB posted the highest EPA per rush of 0.26 among running backs with more than 200 attempts in 2021. Eclipsing other first round talents like Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III, Abram Smith’s score indicates that every time he carries the ball, Baylor is expected to add 0.26 points per play.
Smith’s strengths include size and strength for pass protection, running with a line backer’s mentality to finish, and patience to search for open lanes. His play style draws some similarities with former Michigan State RB Le’veon Bell as they both displayed the patience to let plays develop before attacking the defense. Some weaknesses include limited acceleration and knee injuries sustained in the past.
With the recent trend in playing multiple running backs because of the devaluation of a three down running back, I can envision a team wanting a third down, power back drafting Smith in the later rounds. Organizations like the Ravens or Titans who have had their star running backs, J.K. Dobbins and Derrick Henry, injured before could select Abram Smith to serve as a similar replacement if they sustain additional injuries in the future.
The three prospects listed above were just a few of the many late round players that could make an impact for a team.
The draft is an integral part of the rebuilding process for every team. There have been many prospects like Tom Brady, Shannon Sharpe, and Cris Carter who were drafted late, that have contributed to the success of their teams and eventually became inducted in the Hall of Fame. It all depends on an organization’s success rate drafting the prospects while they are under valued.
