After 25 grueling years in the cellar of the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills have finally won the division. With an exceptional 13–3 regular-season record, they surpassed everyone’s expectations by reaching the AFC Championship before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite the tough loss, there are several accomplishments to be proud of from this season. The development of quarterback Josh Allen shows he is capable of leading this franchise. The offseason acquisition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs proved to be the trade of the year as he led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards. This high powered offense, which featured veteran wide receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley, culminated into the second-highest scoring offense with 31.3 points per game. Defensively, safety tandem Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer continued to prove why they are the best safety duo in the league. Cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds both received Pro Bowl nods, while developing into the leaders of the defense. However, there were limitations to the team’s playing abilities. The lack of a rushing offense forced the Bills offense to rely on the talents of Josh Allen, allowing opposing defenses to strictly gameplan for the pass. Defensively, the defensive line failed to generate much pressure against the opposing quarterbacks, granting them extra time to complete plays.
My philosophy in building an NFL roster is to start by controlling the line of scrimmage. Ensure there is a strong foundation in the middle core of the field and then expand outward to the boundaries. There are three objectives every team should strive to do successfully:
- Acquire your most valuable asset: the quarterback.
- Protect your most valuable asset by building an offensive line that can protect him.
- Attack their most valuable asset by building a defensive line that can pressure him.
If you do not believe me, ask Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs after their Super Bowl LV loss.
- Acquire your most valuable asset: the quarterback.
Josh Allen took a giant leap forward in his third year as Buffalo quarterback. He improved his statistics in every category ranking top 5 in the league for completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, quarterback rating, etc. I would argue that although it is encouraging to see Allen leading in “sexy” stats like touchdowns and passing yards, completion percentage is the simplest yet most efficient way to analyze progression and development as a quarterback. It measures the most efficient characteristic: accuracy. Accuracy as a general statistic can display decision making skills such leading the ball to receivers, taking checkdowns when the first or second read is not available, and building trust within the receivers that passes thrown their way will be accurate.
Prior to being drafted, Allen was deemed extremely raw as a prospect with his arm and body size being his greatest strengths. The biggest limitation that deterred scouts and general managers away was his poor accuracy. It was concerning because Allen attended the University of Wyoming and did not face elite competition compared to other quarterbacks. This chart shows the extreme levels of development Allen underwent with the assistance of the Bills’ coaching staff. It appears to me that General Manager Brandon Beane and the Buffalo Bills organization have achieved the first objective in building a successful team: acquiring the most valuable asset.
2. Protect your most valuable asset by building an offensive line that can protect him.
In this graph, Josh Allen represents the yellow square. The model displays the relationship between the amount of blitzes a quarterback receives from opposing defenses with how frequently a quarterback is pressured. A high risk, high reward move, blitzing is a defensive tactic utilized to pressure the opposing quarterback by sending more defenders than usual to rush. Although one has a higher possibility to pressure and sack the quarterback, it is at the expense of leaving the secondary isolated without help defending the opposing wide receivers. Pressure consists of the sum of quarterback hurries, hits, and sacks. Quarterbacks under constant stress from defensive pressure are more likely to create more mistakes throughout a game due to the short response time.
The Problem: Observing the chart, Josh Allen led the league in opposing blitzes with 244 while ranking 9th in total pressures with 130. The offense cannot control how often a defense blitzes against them, but ranking in the bottom ten for opposing pressures cannot be good for the long term success of the offense. Good pass protection is vital to the success of the offense since it adheres to the second objective every team should strive to achieve.
The Solution:
Offensive linemen Jon Feliciano, Daryl Williams, Ike Boettger, and Brian Winters are all capable starters scheduled to be free agents this offseason. If remained unsigned, the line returns:
LT — Dion Dawkins
LG -
C — Mitch Morse
RG -
RT — Cody Ford
If I was GM Brandon Beane, I would look to first re-sign RT Daryl Williams to a multi year contract. A 16 game starter, retaining Williams will provide continuity in the offensive line and allow Cody Ford to shift to LG, the position Ford played before suffering a season ending injury.
I’ve noticed a few top draft analysts mocking standout Alabama RB Najee Harris to the Bills at pick 30. Although Harris is projected to be the top running back in this draft class, this would be a luxury pick the Bills should not take. I believe that the Bills should select the best offensive lineman available which may include Ohio State guard Wyatt Davis, Michigan tackle Jalen Mayfield, USC guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, Oklahoma center Creed Humphrey, etc. After drafting an offensive lineman in the first round, re-signing Jon Feliciano could be a good option to provide continuity and depth for the Bills. After the offseason, the 2021 offensive line could look as followed:
LT — Dion Dawkins
LG — Cody Ford
C — Mitch Morse
RG — Rookie
RT — Daryl Williams
On the topic of free agency, the Bills are not in a flexible situation regarding cap space. They are projected to have about 2.1 million dollars in cap space. Notable free agents include Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Matt Milano. Quinton Jefferson would be a top candidate to be released as he is no longer guaranteed money, and cutting him would save $8 million. Vernon Butler can also be cut, doing so would save $6.85 million while taking on a $1 million cap hit.
Fulfilling these two goals create a strong foundation for a team’s success on the field.
3. Attack their most valuable asset by building a defensive line that can pressure him.
Theoretically, the more a defense blitzes, the more pressure they should generate. The Buffalo Bills’ defense (marked as a blue diamond) blitzed 230 times throughout the season while generating 135 QB pressures. This is not a very good rate considering Buffalo ranks 8th in blitz attempts but is 22nd in successful pressures. Compare this to the stellar Pittsburgh Steelers defense: they rank first in pressures with 203 while only blitzing 244 times.
The Problem:
The Buffalo defensive line struggles to consistently pressure the quarterback. The issue with this is that plays are able to fully develop for opposing offenses and defensive backs can only cover receivers for so long before fatigue kicks in. Fortunately, the Buffalo secondary consists of Pro Bowlers Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde, therefore the defensive line gets bailed out. LB Matt Milano has opted to test free agency this offseason, leaving the middle of the defense void of a defensive presence. His market value is projected at $13.8 million, an amount GM Brandon Beane is unwilling to pay due to the salary cap constraints.
The Solution:
Part of the solution comes from the return of defensive tackle (DT) Star Lotulelei. His absence in the 2020 season was noticeable as the defense’s pressure to sack ratio decreased from 74.8% to 59.7%. His return allows third year DT Ed Oliver to generate pressure without being the focus of the opposing offensive line. Rookie defensive end (DE) AJ Epenesa can hopefully develop into a stellar edge rusher in his sophomore season. The Bills definitely need to get younger on the defensive line. 33 year old DE Mario Addison is not producing as well as he used to, I recommended cutting Quinton Jefferson and Vernon Butler. Buffalo will have to evaluate if they want to keep DT Harrison Phillips after next year since he is not developing as well expected.
During the upcoming draft, if GM Brandon Beane is unable to draft an offensive lineman in the first round, I would not be opposed to drafting a coverage linebacker. This graph displays the amount of yards allowed to Tight Ends (TE) by the defense.
Failing to cover the TE remains an issue for the Bills which was extremely evident during the playoff run. Against premier tight ends like Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Mike Gesicki, the Bills failed to contain them therefore exposing and exploiting a crucial spot in the defense. Offenses who exploit the middle section of the field are able to tire out opposing defenses by consistently rushing the ball and executing play action passes which keep the defenses guessing. To prevent this vulnerability, Buffalo needs to develop their pass rush to prevent constant running plays, install unique packages that cover tight ends, and draft a tall, sideline to sideline linebacker who is able to cover tight ends throughout the duration of the game.
Draft Day:
The Buffalo Bills have 7 selections in the upcoming draft:
Round 1: Pick 30
Round 2: Pick 61
Round 3: Pick 94
Round 5: Pick 145 (Acquired from Raiders for Zay Jones)
Round 5: Pick 158
Round 6: Pick 189
Round 7: Pick 200 (Acquired from Panthers for Marshall Newhouse)
Round 1: I would like to select an offensive lineman such as USC OG Alijah Vera-Tucker or Ohio State OG Wyatt Davis but recent mock drafts show them drafted prior to pick 30. Therefore, I think that Tulsa LB Zaven Collins would be the best player available. He has the range and instincts to play as an off-ball linebacker and the length, get-off, and tenacity to be an edge rusher. He is the perfect replacement for departed free agent Matt Milano. One alternative selection is Notre Dame OT Liam Eichenberg. He provides a natural athletic ability with strong hands and quick feet. Missouri LB Nick Bolton could be a reach here, depending on the previous selections.
Round 2: Tennessee OG Trey Smith would provide the offensive line with another set of power destined to push and drive defenders into the second level. He possesses immense upper body strength with incredible intangible abilities. His medical history is a notable deterrent therefore should be carefully monitored. Other alternatives include Alabama LB Dylan Moses and LSU LB Jabril Cox. These two linebackers would be the alternatives if the Bills decide to draft an offensive lineman in the first round. Both are incredibly mobile, off the ball linebackers with a feel for the ball.
Round 3: I can see the Bills addressing the rushing attack situation here. The Bills lacked a consistent rushing offense which resulted in the offense relying heavily on Josh Allen. Last year, they had second year Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss lead the position by committee. Both are built similarly; Singletary at 5’7” and weighing at 203 lbs while Moss is listed at 5’9” and 223 lbs. Some of the struggles in the running game can be attributed to the offensive line but I was not impressed with their tape this season. They are both power running backs but I believe that the Bills could target a shiftier, speedier, three down back in Ohio State’s Trey Sermon.
A few college prospects projected to fall out of the first round and perhaps the second round that fill the positions of needs are:
Georgia CB Eric Stokes
LSU DT Tyler Shelvin
USC DT Jay Tufele
Clemson OT Jackson Carman
Georgia CB Tyson Campbell
Memphis RB Kenneth Gainwell
Miami DE Quincy Roche
Wake Forest DE Carlos Basham Jr.
The draft is an important way to fill positions of needs with cheap talent and develop players in your own system. Good teams draft well and draft with purpose.
Summary:
Buffalo has exceeded expectations but should not be satisfied until they win a championship. I really believe in the culture GM Brandon Beane and Head Coach Sean McDermott have established throughout this rebuild and I am looking forward to this offseason. I do believe their Super Bowl window is open and they must win one before Josh Allen’s rookie contract expires. They have fulfilled the first objective of acquiring their most important asset. They have yet to fulfill the second objective of protecting their most important asset. They have also yet to fulfill the third objective of pressuring the opposition’s most important asset. Considering the Bills reached the AFC Championship game, even a slight boost could be enough to push them over the edge to hoist the Lombardi trophy for the first time in franchise history.
