It’s baseball season! Well, not yet. The start of the season has now been postponed due to the financial lockout set by the owners. The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) which deals with the core financial agreements recently expired, and the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) is currently in negotiations with the owners. Without getting too in detail, the season not starting on time is at the fault of the owners.
Growing up, I was a fan of the Seattle Mariners. A terrible decision made by 5 year old me, the Mariners taught me the virtue of patience. As a fan, it is rewarding to watch your team succeed at the highest level after years of mediocrity. The cycle of watching your team rebuild, drafting highly touted prospects, developing the core rotation and lineup, and eventually winning a World Series is a long and tedious process.
Unfortunately, the Mariners last played in the playoffs in 2001.
To put that in perspective, I was born in 2001.
This past 2021 season, the expectations for the Mariners were fairly low. They were fielding a fairly young team, and the majority of their prospects were still on the minor league level. Among the Opening Day starters, SS J.P. Crawford and 1B Evan White were expected to develop into every day starters. Promising CF Kyle Lewis was coming off a Rookie of the Year season, but he unfortunately sustained injuries throughout the season, with the team eventually shutting him down in September.
Many of the fans were excited for newly called up prospect, OF Jarred Kelenic, home grown RHP Logan Gilbert, as well as an abundance of other young prospects.
After a series of mid season trades, a surprisingly late playoff push, and the eventual let down, the Mariners finished with an impressive 90–72 record. Based on the Pythagorean model, since they scored 697 runs and allowed 748 runs, they should have posted a 76–86 record. With a run differential of -51, it was unexpected of them to finish 18 games over .500. Consider that this is the exception, not the norm. Here’s how they did it:
Win by a few, lose by a lot.
In 52 one run games in 2021, the Mariners posted a 33–19 W/L record. They scored 213 runs while allowing 199 runs.
In 39 blowout games in 2021 (5+ run differential), the Mariners posted a 11–28 W/L record, scoring 154 runs while allowing 289 runs.
This indicates that their offense’s and starting rotation’s performance was average to poor, but their bullpen was stellar throughout the season. If the offense could score just enough runs, while the starter allowed the fewest runs as possible, the bullpen can come in and seal the game.
Offensive Woes
The Seattle Mariners’ offense performed pretty poorly. There are an abundance of statistics and metrics to evaluate players, as not every player is given identical roles. (For example, some players focus on slugging at the expense of average.) But to keep it simple, the Mariners started only 4 players with a batting average above .250: Abraham Toro, Mitch Haniger, J.P. Crawford, and Ty France. With the exception of Haniger, they aren’t necessarily known for their hitting power.
A high powered offense like Toronto, for example, fielded players like Semien, Guerrero, Bichette, Hernandez, Gurriel, and Springer who all hit above .250 as well as hitting 20+ home runs, demonstrating their skill at excelling in contact and power. (We can talk about how this didn’t necessarily translate that well into their W/L column at another time)
Fortunately, for the Mariners, the players mentioned above are all nice, stable pieces to the rebuild, and will be veterans by the time the top prospects make their debuts.
Regardless, teams cannot win games without scoring runs.
Batting Average and OPS:
The graph below is a simple Batting Average vs On Base Plus Slugging chart, comparing teams with each other in regards to hitting for average and power. Based on the graph, the high powered offenses of Toronto, Houston and Boston sit at the top of the league in both metrics, while the Mariners performed very poorly in both.
Team OPS+ Ratings:
The graph below displays each team’s OPS+ rating during the 2021 season. Regular OPS is On Base Percentage Plus Slugging. It accounts for a hitter’s ability to get on base as well as their power. Per Major League Baseball, OPS+ can be described as a, “player’s on-base plus slugging percentage and normalizes the number across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks. It then adjusts so a score of 100 is league average, and 150 is 50 percent better than the league average.”
OPS+ has become a highly sought out for metric as it accounts for external factors like ballpark dimensions. It captures a hitter’s true ability on a more accurate scale. As we can see, the Mariners ranked 21th in the league with a team OPS+ of 92. This further confirms their offensive woes this past season.
Grounding out Into Double Plays and Runners Left On Base:
One encouraging statistic observed with the Mariners was how they ranked in Grounding out Into Double Plays (GIDP) as well as men Left On Base (LOB). Nothing kills momentum more than committing double plays, as well as ending an inning with men stranded on base. Losing potential runs like that frustrates players, reduces morale, and increases stress for the team. In a league where it is so difficult to create runs, it is so disappointing to end innings, especially in the later innings, without recording the number of runs you were expecting.
Based on the graph above, it is encouraging to see the Mariners low in both metrics. The Mariners ranked 5th lowest with 1012 men left on base, and 3rd lowest with 92 double plays. It would be very reassuring and appealing if they can maintain this status while receiving high end production from their young prospects.
Launch Angles:
Over the last five years or so, there has been an analytical trend in maximizing home runs at the expense of potentially striking out. When we consider the rules of baseball, every single out is precious. Teams must maximize their 3 outs to its fullest potential. The quickest way to generate one run is to hit a solo home run. If you’re lucky, you might have runners on base to produce even more runs. With the recent shift in pitching dominance, pitchers are generating more and more ground balls to induce double plays. To avoid this issue, batters are changing their swing by increasing their launch angle. This way, a batter will be more probable to hit a home run, or a fly out (resulting in one out instead of a potential two when runners are on base.) However, a consequence of this method of hitting is an increase in strikeouts.
The graph depicted above shows the relationship between Launch Angle and Home Runs. We can assess a general, positive trend in home runs increasing if launch angle is increased. The Mariners were tied for 4th in Launch Angle Percentage with Houston and St. Louis at 14%. Ahead of them, were San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Oakland. They ranked in 13th place in home runs with 199 total HRs.
Based on my correlation model ran in R, the predictors with the highest correlation with Home Runs is Barrels (0.898), SLG (0.866), Weighted On Base Average (WOBA, 0.782), Exit Velocity (0.710), and Launch Angle (0.615). It is foolish and unreasonable to tell players, “hey, just hit the ball better.” So it was a smart and interesting method to change their swing to focus on launch angle.
As mentioned above, changing a swinger’s approach to prioritize home runs might generate whiffs as they aren’t necessarily focused on contact for the purpose of getting on base. With this in mind, the graph below displays the relationship between launch angle and the number of strikeouts in the 2021 season.
Among the teams listed above with the highest launch angles (San Francisco, Los Angeles, Oakland, St. Louis, Houston, and Seattle), the Mariners recorded the most strike outs with 1,492. Houston, well known for their offensive success, recorded 1,222 strike outs. In comparison with the Mariners, those 270 extra outs are extremely valuable. If better utilized, they could have resulted in more runs, hits, opportunities to advance the runner, etc. It will be interesting to see how the Mariners adapt to this. Given that many of their starters are young with little playing experience, they most likely lack the plate discipline teams with veterans like Houston or Toronto have.
Starting Rotation
The starting rotation last season performed fairly average. Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi both had streaks of highs and lows, but Chris Flexen seized his opportunity to emerge as a front end starter after years of little playing experience. Logan Gilbert completed his first full season, offering glimpses of his remarkable command and delivery. Acquired halfway through the season, Tyler Anderson also provided a veteran presence, rounding out and adding more depth to the rotation.
Quality Starts:
A quality start can be defined by games in which a pitcher completed 6 innings while giving up 3 or fewer earned runs in a start. This is an easy metric to evaluate and indicate whether a starting rotation can go deep into games while giving their offense a chance to compete.
Based on the graph above, the Mariners ranked 14th with 55 quality starts. Fans would like to see them ranked within the top ten but considering their rotation is not fully set up for competing at the moment, it is not substantial enough to concern over.
The Mariners recently signed LHP Robbie Ray to a 5 year contract worth $115M over the off season. The Cy Young winner recorded a 2.84 ERA in 193.1 innings with the Toronto Bluejays. With a 11.5 SO/9 ratio, his 2021 campaign was extremely impressive considering Ray was facing against the premier hitters of the AL East. His veteran presence as the team’s ace should improve the rotation and allow the other starters to assume more fitted and appropriate roles.
Marco Gonzales can establish himself as a solid number 2, Yusei Kikuchi will most likely not re-sign to the team, Logan Gilbert and Chris Flexen will look to further improve and develop into high caliber pitchers. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn will look to compete for the final rotation spot while the team waits for Matt Brash to develop. Even further down the line in 2023, top prospects Emerson Hancock and George Kirby will look to make their major league debuts.
A Commanding Bullpen
What saved the Mariners’ season and allowed them to compete for wins was their bullpen. Dominant throughout the season, Jerry DiPoto and the front office found overlooked relievers like Kendall Graveman, Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Anthony Misiewicz, Casey Sadler, and revived their careers. A pleasure to watch, it was reassuring knowing that if the team possessed a lead towards the end of the game, it would most likely be retained.
The Mariners bullpen ranked pretty highly in the number of high leverage situations. Performing in 212 high leverage situations, the bullpen posted a 61% save percentage. We can observe that there were teams with higher save percentages. But, given that the bullpen was constructed with overlooked and inexpensive relievers, I commend the coaching staff for producing great results.
One particular reliever on the Mariners that stood out was Paul Sewald. After spending 4 seasons with the Mets, Sewald recorded 104 strikeouts in 64.2 innings in 2021. Additionally, he posted a stellar .176 opposing batting average. It will be intriguing to see how he performs this upcoming season, hoping to improve upon his remarkable 2021 season.
The results of the 2021 season for the Seattle Mariners surprised many analysts and fans due to their struggles. Recently ranked with the number two overall minor league farm system, fans are optimistic for the organization’s future. Highly ranked minor league prospects such as Julio Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock will look to become the faces of the franchise, in addition to the younger major league players like Jarred Kelenic and Kyle Lewis.
When the Seattle Mariners make the playoffs for the first time in my life, I will be the happiest person in the world. Do it for the Mariner legends who could not experience playoff baseball. Do it for the first athlete I ever looked up to: Ichiro Suzuki. Do it for the first pitcher in franchise history to throw a Perfect Game: Félix Hernandez. Do it for the fans, many of whom are no longer with us today, and reward them for their patience for the organization and willingness to stick through the tough times.
However, before worrying about the possibility of a Mariners playoff berth, let us hope that Major League Baseball will first finalize a deal with the players union and begin the 2022 season.
Huge thanks to Camden Kay for his MLB Packages that allow me to create these visualizations.
Sports Twitter: @bbakdata
