Pre Draft Preview: After a quiet off-season, how will the Seahawks cash in on their draft capital?
With John Schneider awarding Geno Smith with a 3 year contract extension worth up to $105M, I am curious to see where Seattle’s front office envision him taking their franchise.
After the Seahawks traded future Hall of Fame quarterback Russell Wilson away last off season, many fans and members of the media saw this transaction as the end of a dynasty and the start of a rare rebuild for the Seattle Seahawks.
Fortunately for Seattle, Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos struggled while long time back-up Geno Smith quickly took advantage of the quarterback vacancy and posted a career year. He led the league in passer rating and completion percentage, while leading Seattle to the NFC Playoffs in 2022. Although this past season was a success to many, questions remain to be resolved this off-season.
A 10 year veteran, Geno is what many consider to be a “bridge quarterback”. He performs well enough to win games and stay fairly competitive, but nobody pictures him hoisting the Lombardi trophy with confetti falling from the sky.
Smith was perfect for what Seattle needed last year: an experienced, inexpensive game manager to do the fundamentals while they developed the rest of their team. However, what will happen in what looks like 1–2 years when the core of their young talent begin to hit their stride, while current stars like D.K. Metcalf and Jordyn Brooks hit their prime? Super Bowl windows tend to open and close rather quickly.
The front office rarely ever gets to pick this high in the first round. In order to maximize their young talent, I believe that the front office needs to get ahead of the curve and draft their franchise quarterback this upcoming draft.
They’ve written Geno off before. I think it’s time to do it again.
However, before we jump to that stage in the off-season, we should evaluate the rest of the roster and decide where improvements can be made based on the statistics of last season. There are three key components each front office focuses on during the off season:
- Evaluating Strengths and Weaknesses
- Free Agency
- The Draft
Overall, the Seahawks exceeded expectations by clinching a playoff berth led by their young talent. However, they appeared to struggle on both sides of the line, which is disappointing to see because a football team’s number two biggest priorities are to:
- Protect your quarterback.
- Attack the opposing quarterback.
My biggest takeaway from this past season is that they failed to do both at an above average level. Not being able to accomplish these two tasks effectively limits you from sustaining success at the highest level. Regardless, let’s break down what they did well and what they can improve upon.
1. Evaluating Strengths and Weaknesses
Offensive Strengths:
- Running The Ball
What made the 2022 season a success was the rookie draft class. With a thin roster scattered with holes at important positions, GM John Schneider hit on the majority of his selections to make up for the lack of talent. The rookie class combined to start a total of 70 games last season! There are still improvements to be made, but with six selections all finding their way onto the starting lineup, I applaud John Schneider and the front office for a truly remarkable draft class.
Let’s start with the two rookie offensive tackles:
Charles Cross (1.09, Mississippi State)
The third offensive tackle selected in this class, Charles Cross was chosen using the pick from Denver to find their franchise left tackle. A 2021 First Team All-SEC offensive lineman from Mississippi State, he started all 17 regular season games and playing on all of the offensive snaps. Although he allowed 7 sacks and incurred 9 penalties, I consider his season a success given his status as a rookie playing every snap on a mediocre offensive line.
Abraham Lucas (3.72, Washington State) solidified the other tackle position, providing premier pass protection alongside Cross. A 2021 First Team All-Pac-12 offensive lineman, Lucas was deemed a top overall blocker, specifically in the passing game. He earned a 91 pass blocking grade from PFF for his play during college at Washington State which makes this selection even more outstanding given where he was drafted. Lucas started in 16 games this past season, playing 96% of the available snaps.
Consistency matters in the NFL, which is why these two selections helped stabilize the offensive line. This results in a more durable and reliable run game which helped Kenneth Walker take the league by storm, accumulating over 1,200 yards from scrimmage.
Kenneth Walker III (2.41, Michigan State)
Despite starting in only 11 games, he managed to rush for 1050 yards and just over 400 rushing yards after contact. He led all rookies in rushing attempts with 228 and placed second in the AP 2022–2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award behind Garrett Wilson.
A bruiser between the tackles, I really liked Walker for his value because he offered stability in the Seahawks run game. His elusiveness and twitchy run style allows him to bounce outside with large bursts of speed. An absolute work horse, he is projected to be the Seahawks bell cow of the future. However, it wouldn’t hurt to draft a complimentary running mate given the large workload and injury suffered last year. Maybe a Israel Abanikanda or Tank Bigsby.
Offensive Weaknesses:
- Pass Protection
Pass protection was especially weak with such a poor interior offensive line. I believe that ‘sacks’ as a statistic is overrated to use on both sides of the ball. I think that pressures are more indicative of a player’s ability to disrupt the game in the context of football, because pass-rushers have a great ability to positively affect any given play for their team, even if they aren’t finishing the play off with a sack.
Same thing for the quarterback. Mobile quarterbacks tend to get sacked at higher rates because of their tendency to leave the pocket, leaving offensive linemen often unaware of where the quarterback is in the middle of a play. I don’t believe it’s an accurate representation of the offensive line and can unfairly hurt their reputation if a mobile quarterback like Justin Fields or Kyler Murray get sacked at higher rates. It’s just not entirely their fault.
Seattle has struggled with pass protection for years, mainly because of the lack of money allocated towards the offensive line due to Russell Wilson’s massive contract. I’m not entirely happy to see Geno Smith enduring similar effects. Maybe the Seahawks will address the issue in free agency in the upcoming years once their cap space increases. Regardless, it’s an area of concern which should be addressed in the upcoming draft. Imagine how much more productive Smith could have been if he wasn’t under pressure all the time.
Defensive Strengths:
Seattle’s defense was rather average throughout the season, but their two rookie corner backs Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant emerged as bright spots in their secondary.
Tariq Woolen (5.153, UTSA)
An overlooked corner back that dropped all the way to the fifth round last year, Woolen made an immediate impact for the secondary. With elite 4.26s speed and a wide frame, the 6'4" rookie recorded 6 interceptions and cemented himself as one of the most productive corner backs in relation to draft position. One thing I loved about his play was the ability to break up passes.
Woolen was tied in 4th place with Darious Williams with the most pass deflections (16), behind the Defensive Rookie of the Year Ahmad (Sauce) Garnder, All Pro Jalen Ramsey, and Pro Bowler James Bradberry. Among really elite company, Woolen found himself in the discussion of Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Coby Bryant (4.109, University of Cincinnati)
Another highly overlooked defensive back prospect, even though Coby Bryant won the Jim Thorpe award in college, he was overshadowed by Ahmad Gardner during his collegiate career at Cincinnati. However, he made great contributions for the Seattle secondary, tallying up 4 pass deflections, 4 forced fumbles, and 4 tackles for loss. Bryant was able to make his mark as a complimentary piece to Woolen, playing in all 17 games last season.
Defensive Weaknesses:
It’s incredibly difficult for the Seahawks to remain competitive in games because of how many yards the defense is giving up on the ground. Addressing the run defense is a major area of concern for Seattle, since the rankings below align with the worst franchises in the league right now.
Seattle allowed the third most rushing yards with 2,554 while giving up 21 rushing touchdowns. They also allowed 130 first downs from running plays which is abysmal. If you cannot stop the opposing offense, your defense gets fatigued and your offense has to consistently play hero ball.
2. Free Agency
With limited salary cap space, the Seahawks had a fairly quiet free agency period, leaving without a true headlining acquisition. However, I think they did well given the resources they had and the contracts they could offer. Most of the free agent acquisitions/extensions appear to be short term solutions as the front office seeks to develops the rest of the roster. Here’s a short breakdown on a few of the acquisitions/extensions:
- Geno Smith, QB (Contract Extension: 3 years up to $105M)
Even though I believe that it’s almost time for Seattle to focus on the future at the quarterback position, I don’t mind this extension because the Seahawks baked in an abundance of performance based bonuses. With a 2023 cap hit of $10.4M, Seattle has greater flexibility now while also allowing Smith to maximize his earnings if he repeats his stellar performance from last year. It’s a win win quarterback contract in a time where the Daniel Jones’ of the world make $40M a year.
2. Bobby Wagner, MLB (Contract: 1 year, $7M)
After losing Cody Barton to free agency and Jordyn Brooks to injury, Bobby Wagner is a perfect temporary solution at linebacker. A stout run defender, expect him to be involved in virtually every play especially after he finished in the top five among off-ball linebackers in pressures and sacks last year. Even though Wagner is no longer playing up to the Hall of Fame standards we’re all used to, he is a perfect plug and play option in a Seahawks defense that desperately needs linebacker help and veteran leadership.
3. Dre’mont Jones, DE (Contract: 3 years, $51.53M)
With a rushing defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league in virtually every category, the Seahawks desperately sought help on the defensive line. Jones was quite productive his last three seasons with Denver, registering at least 5.5 sacks and 10 QB hits. He should naturally fit schematically in the 3–4 defense and provide youthful energy on the defensive line.
4. Julian Love, S (Contract: 2 years, $12M)
What initially appeared to be a luxury signing given how much the team has invested in the safety position, this acquisition was vital with recent news of Jamal Adams who may not be ready by training camp, and Ryan Neal signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Love ranked third last year among defensive backs for solo tackles with 79. Therefore, his acquisition provides valuable depth to the safety position if Jamal Adams remains unavailable, while also potentially finding himself competing for snaps at nickel corner against Coby Bryant.
5. Evan Brown, C (Contract: 1 year, $2.25M)
Filling in for injured center Frank Ragnow in 2021, the undrafted free agent found himself emerging as a quality run blocker in Detroit, allowing only 2 sacks last year. His contributions on the offensive line helped the Lions finish third in the league with 23 rushing touchdowns, and finish 11th with 2,179 rushing yards. At 26 years old, this signing is low risk acquisition that can pay dividends for the Seahawks if Brown succeeds and is a part of the long term plans.
3. The Draft
With 10 total draft picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, and 4 within the top 52 selections, the front office has yet another opportunity to repeat the success from last year’s class.
I’m going to focus on their top 3 selections:
Round 1.05 via Denver:
Round 1.20:
Round 2.37 via Denver:
I currently rate their top needs as: EDGE, DT, iOL, WR, QB, LB, and S.
If we really dive into the details of Geno Smith’s contract, it looks like a 2 year deal with an opt out clause. Smith played really well last season and deserved his new contract extension and the AP Comeback Player of the Year award. But, quarterbacks don’t start suddenly performing well at 32. I think that it is time to look into the future of the organization and draft the successor of the quarterback position.
The Seahawks need an abundance of upgrades across their roster, but I think they should take a big swing with their first selection. 5th overall is the highest Seattle has ever selected under the current front office, and I see this pick similar to playing with house money. John Schneider and Pete Carroll aren’t getting any younger… In a conference as wide open as the NFC, it’s time to bet big.
Round 1.05: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
An explosive athlete with rare arm strength, Anthony Richardson is one of the most intriguing prospects in this draft class due to his size, speed, and acceleration. He is not as polished or accurate as Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, but the ability to change the game with his arm and legs sets a high ceiling for his potential.
Consider that there is absolutely zero pressure for Richardson to start. This is the perfect opportunity to draft a raw, agile, athletic freak at quarterback, and allow him to develop under the guidance of Geno Smith. Additionally, because of Pete Carroll’s style of coaching, the offense will generally be able to rely on their run game, alongside a couple of premier receivers in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
A valid argument against this selection is the lack of career pass attempts Richardson has in only 13 starts (393), and his accuracy issues with a collegiate completion percentage of 54.7%. In order for this draft selection to be successful, he will need to develop under a patient coaching staff. I think the Seahawks have 2 years until the peak of their Super Bowl window.
In the scenario where Richardson is unavailable at 5, I think you take the best edge rusher available, whether it is Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. or Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson. If both Richardson and Anderson Jr. are available, I still think you take the swing on Richardson because of how deep the defensive line draft class is. No 2023 prospect is as polished and dominating like Anderson Jr., but edge rushers like Lukas Van Ness, Nolan Smith, and Myles Murphy may still be available at 20 if the Seahawks look to go that direction. I would not be surprised if Anderson Jr. is selected at fifth overall since a total of 62 tackles for loss and 34.5 sacks are hard to ignore. But I’m in the hot take business here. :)
As dominant as Georgia’s Jalen Carter is at a position of dire need, I would not draft him purely due to maturity and motor issues. Maybe John and Pete look the other way. Who knows.
I also don’t envision any scenario where the organization struggles and drafts at the top next year where they’re in a position to draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
Round 1.20: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
After forgoing the two top edge rushers in Will Anderson Jr. and Tyree Wilson, I think that the best available option for Seattle’s base 3–4 defense is Lukas Van Ness. They brought Jarran Reed back and signed Dre’Mont Jones to be their starting defensive ends, but I think Lukas Van Ness is an ascending star with his fierce power and built frame. At 6'5" and 272 lbs, his long, stout build is something Pete Carroll could definitely fall in love with.
The Hawkeye standout led the defense in tackles for loss with 11 and sacks with 6.5 last year, all while sitting behind John Waggoner and Joe Evans. I think that Van Ness still needs some additional reps at the next level, but I’m excited to see what his full potential looks like, while learning from veterans Reed and Jones for a year.
One could argue for drafting Myles Murphy or Nolan Smith and I’d be okay with it. I’m just unsure if they’ll be available at 20.
Other non edge rushers I can envision being selected with this pick are: Calijah Kancey, DT from the University of Pittsburgh, and Jordan Addison, WR from the University of Southern California. The former fills an urgent need, while the latter fills an eventual need.
Round 2.37: Steve Avila, OG, TCU
A three year starter at TCU, Avila played every offensive line position except for left tackle, moving from center to left guard in 2022. He allowed 0 sacks and only 2 QB hits in 1020 offensive snaps last season, as he helped lead the Horned Frogs to the National Championship Game. If Avila’s available at the beginning of the second round, I am ecstatic to draft him if I’m Seattle. Standing at 6'3", weighing at 332 lbs, he will make an immediate impact as an interior guard on any organization.
Other Prospects Down the Board to Potentially Target
Henry To’oTo’o, MLB, Alabama
I can see the Seahawks targeting an off ball linebacker to eventually replace Bobby Wagner. A really instinctive and quick player, To’oTo’o covers a wide range of the field you’d like to see in a linebacker. Although a bit smaller than you’d hope for, Henry plays with precision and is always on go mode. I’d spend a 3rd-4th round selection on To’oTo’o.
Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
With two receivers in Lockett and Eskridge on the shorter and more agile side, I can see the organization looking for a bigger body with elite leaping skills to compliment D.K. Metcalf. Rashee Rice has excellent body control and hand eye coordination, who consistently wins jump balls. Although he lacks top speed for a receiver, his wide catch radius can contribute greatly for the Seahawks receiving corps.
Zach Harrison, EDGE, The Ohio State University
A 5 star recruit, the Buckeye defender has elite length and speed that allows him to get around the edge. Leading the team in pressures last year (33), Harrison creates tons of leverage with his long reach and disrupts the game in a variety of ways. Some concerns of Harrison’s is that he is rather stiff and rigid, while also never producing on the stat sheet. Regardless, the Seahawks could use a young athlete like Zach to help build the defensive line.
Overall, I’m very excited to see the growth and development of this young Seahawks team. Improvements must be made on the offensive and defensive line, ensuring that they are able to better protect the quarterback, as well as limiting the rush attack against them. Although I’m happy to see Geno Smith succeed, if we look around at the upcoming talent on the roster, I truly believe that John and Pete should seriously consider drafting a top end quarterback to time his arrival with the upcoming Super Bowl window.
If you made it this far, I appreciate you reading and I hope you enjoyed.
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