Fly Eagles Fly! An Offseason Preview of the Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have a very optimistic and eventful offseason to look forward to. Prior to the beginning of the season, they were flooded with demoralizing and discouraging offseason headlines that made their way to the front page of the sports world. Head Coach (HC) Doug Pederson departed from the front office after a rocky ending with the General Manager (GM) Howie Roseman and owner Jeffrey Lurie, forcing conversations about why the organization let go of a Super Bowl winning HC. Former first-round quarterback (QB) pick Carson Wentz was traded to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for a conditional first-round pick after the team invested an abundance of assets over the last five years to build around him. Newly hired HC Nick Sirianni botched and embarrassed himself, in my opinion, during his first press conference as head coach, spewing out NFL buzzwords unnecessarily which left viewers exhibiting no signs of hope. Overall, expectations for the franchise were very low despite having won a Super Bowl just four years prior.
Nick Sirianni has been the offensive coordinator (OC) for the Indianapolis Colts for the last three years under HC Frank Reich. In his last two seasons, the Colts ranked 4th in rushing attempts. This was due to a combination of a weak quarterback play under Jacoby Brissett and Philip Rivers, and their duo of competent running backs (RB), Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor. Going into the 2021 season, the Eagles’ situation was fairly identical to what Sirianni experienced during his tenure in Indianapolis. A quarterback who failed to consistently throw the ball downfield, and a group of running backs who displayed sufficient abilities.
Defensive Coordinator (DC) Jonathan Gannon was newly hired by Sirianni and the front office at the start of the season as well. He worked as the cornerbacks' coach in Indianapolis for the last three seasons as well. A first time defensive coordinator, Gannon implemented a base 4–3 defensive package with varying man/zone coverage depending on the opponent.
Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen was also newly hired to the Eagles coaching staff. He worked with Sirianni in the Chargers franchise for four years. The offense utilized a lot of run-pass-option (RPO) sets due to their strengths in having a mobile quarterback as well as a mix of running backs at their disposal.
After beginning the season with a poor 2–5 record, the Eagles completed the season with a 9–8 record and a surprising wild-card playoff berth. As the only rookie HC in NFL history to make the playoffs, Sirianni and the Eagles surpassed many expectations and established a solid foundation for their organizational rebuild. Philadelphia has established its identity as a power-running team, as we sort of expected due to Sirianni’s past history in Indianapolis, leading the league in multiple categories. They were ranked 2nd in rushing attempts, 1st in rushing yards, and 1st in rushing touchdowns. QB Jalen Hurts, dual-threat passer and rusher, led the team in rushing with 784 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Running backs Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell were all cycled throughout the season at a consistent rate. Although their record may not indicate it, I thought that Nick Sirianni and the coaching staff have done a fantastic job this season in establishing team identity. It is crucial to a team’s morale and culture to know what kind of direction the organization is heading towards.
There are three key components each team focuses on during the offseason:
- Evaluating Strengths and Weaknesses
- Free Agency
- The Draft
Evaluating Strengths and Weaknesses
Offensive Strengths:
- Running The Ball
The Eagles possess some limitations with their offense, but they accomplish one thing extremely well: running the football. They led the league with 2715 rushing yards, averaged 4.9 yards per rush, and averaged 6.4 plays per drive.
The Eagles ran away with the total rushing yards stat by a mile. It’s even more impressive to consider that they lack a three-down, bell-cow back like the Colts, Titans, and Browns. But their ability to mix a variety of running backs and utilize them in different situations is what represents and forms their team identity.
Opponents have to gameplan for Jalen Hurts’ passing and rushing ability, as well as the rushing cycle of Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and Kenneth Gainwell. They aren’t considered premier running backs, but the coaching staff’s ability to maximize each talent is an underrated quality. There has been a transition from teams over the last five years to move away from the standard three-down running back and mix in multiple running backs like the Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, etc but they fail to match the same level of production as the Eagles. If Sirianni and the coaching staff can progress past this threshold next season, expect to see greater levels of success for the organization.
The graph above also displays the team leaders in rushing yards per attempt. This validates their success operating as a run-first offense and displays their dominance in the run. It reveals that the Eagles do not just consistently run the ball, but they run with a purpose and ambition.
2. Using the RPO
Contributing to their rushing success is their offensive play style of calling Run-Pass-Option (RPO) plays. The Eagles called the most RPO plays this season with 292. The RPO is a fairly new development utilized by teams with mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts. When calling the RPO, it presents three options for the play in this order: handing the ball off to the RB, keeping the ball for a QB rush, or passing the ball. Ultimately, the choice is dependent on the defensive package and personnel the quarterback sees. Due to the nature of the RPO, it requires a mobile quarterback, a mix of running backs, and usually results in short-yardage gains. A major advantage to this play is requiring the defense to guess what play will occur, which is difficult to prevent. A disadvantage of this play is that it limits the number of yards the offense can gain on one play.
Offensive Weaknesses:
- Liability in Passing Offense
Philadephia ranked in the bottom third in almost every major passing category. They ranked 25th in passing yards per game, 28th in passing touchdowns, 25th in total passing yards, and 25th in completion percentage. Granted, they also attempted the least amount of passes in the league, which puts these rankings into perspective. But when the offense is so run-oriented, defenses are more likely to successfully game plan around that in the future and divert their attention away from the passing attack.
The graph depicted above displays a simple indication that the Eagles are below the mean for passing yards and passing touchdowns. For now, this is not a pressing concern because it was understood that the Eagles would gameplan around the run. But once opponents have tape and an offseason to review, they will gameplan for the Eagles rushing attack. Philadelphia must reduce their reliance on their one-dimensional offense before it is too late.
Improving the receiver corps is a huge area of concern because wide receivers (WR) J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Jalen Reagor are not performing at the rate they should be. Rookie WR DeVonta Smith completed a spectacular rookie campaign, surpassing DeSean Jackson’s rookie single-season receiving yard record. He is a promising young star that the Eagles will build around.
Outside of Smith and TE Dallas Goedert, the offense lacks the ability to push the ball down the field. Diversifying the offense is also helpful because it allows them to call more complex play-action passes, which keeps the defense on their toes instead of solely committing to the run defense. Inserting a WR2 opposite DeVonta Smith will provide wonders for the Eagles.
Jalen Hurts’ ability as a dual-threat QB is one of the key reasons why the offense performed so well. But it’s not exactly promising that fans think of his legs before his throwing arm. No matter how successful mobile quarterbacks are, the NFL is still a passing league and it is imperative for quarterbacks to possess the ability to throw the ball downfield. Many teams and mobile quarterbacks tried to emulate their play by observing Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. His mobility and agility were world-class and teams could not stop him. However, he was exceptional at passing which is why he is still successful after ten years. Hurts’ limitations in the passing game is a major critique for many doubters, including myself.
There is an existing history of mobile quarterbacks taking the league by storm due to their rushing abilities. It is difficult to gameplan for mobile quarterbacks due to their versatile skillset. However, as these quarterbacks primarily rely on their legs, they are more prone and vulnerable to injuries that affect their performance and ability to stay on the field. Two such examples are Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Arizona’s Kyler Murray. They were highly touted for their mobility and agility in expanding their offense. Neither were considered strong pocket passers coming out of college but they were good enough and have since improved. With a strong start to their careers, Jackson won the MVP award in 2019, and Murray won the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2019. Unfortunately, they both sustained injuries in 2021 after recording career rushing yard seasons the year before. As a result, Baltimore missed the playoffs for the first time in three seasons. Arizona still made the playoffs, but severely regressed and only earned a playoff berth due to their strong start.
Offensive Summary
I am slightly concerned for Jalen Hurts. Although the rushing ability of Jackson and Murray is an integral piece of their athletic profile, they can still rely on their arm to carry the offense. Barring anything drastic, I cannot confidently say the same regarding Hurts and his ability to consistently and solely rely on his arm to drive down the field. If he suffers an injury during the season, it will be difficult for the offense to perform during his absence. Additionally, if he happens to sustain multiple long-term injuries, will the organization be patient in waiting for his return? Do they believe he is good enough to wait for, or will they seek out his replacement?
Defensive Strengths:
- Rushing Defense
They were 9th in allowing the least amount of rushing yards with 1834 yards and ranked 5th in allowing the lowest rushing yards per attempt, giving up 4.0 yards per carry. I think that this is very indicative of the Eagles’ defensive ability in stopping the run, as it displays how they limit big runs from the opposing team, and how they limit rushing yards in general.
Defensive Weaknesses:
- Getting to the QB
My first priority for evaluating defensive talent is observing how well they perform on the defensive line. The game of football starts in the trenches and effectively controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball is how teams win games. I like to observe the pressure rate a team records because pressures make the QB uncomfortable. They are just as indicative of poor offensive line play as sacks because of their capacity to interfere with the quarterback. Pressures lead to quarterbacks not setting their feet correctly, not going through the entire read, rushing their throws, etc. Those were plays that occurred that have the potential to lead to a sack, an incompletion, or a turnover. Not being confident and comfortable in your throws leads to a reduction in quarter-back confidence and performance. Sacks are still an important metric to consider, but I wish to reiterate that sacks do not portray the whole story.
As observed above, the Eagles are average in terms of pressuring the QB. They also ranked 2nd worst in sacks recorded therefore there is a clear lack of pass rush production due to their lack of healthy defensive line personnel.
Defensive Summary
Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon has done a tremendous job so far in his first year with Philadelphia considering their lack of depth and lack of playmakers. Still, the Eagles possess a significant urgency in fixing their defense on all three levels. As displayed above, they need playmakers who can get to the quarterback. I do not expect Derek Barnett to receive a second contract after a poor year of play. Ryan Kerrigan appears to be a one-and-done in Philadelphia.
Brandon Graham, although a long time veteran, suffered a major injury this season, is aging, and will need to be replaced once his contract expires in 2023. Gannon’s scheme requires the linebackers to be able to get off blocks and make tackles, as well as being a premier off-the-ball linebacker who can drop off in coverage. Alex Singleton and T.J. Edwards have done a decent job but there needs to be a more commanding presence in the middle of the field. The secondary needs improvement as Darius Slay is getting older and should not be relied upon as a premier cornerback much further, while Avonte Maddox seems nothing more than a slot CB.
Free Agency
First order of business: releasing and signing free agents. The Eagles do not have a ton of cap space, an estimated $18 million to work with. Assuming none of the free agents listed below are re-signed, I would really like to see the Eagles pursue these key free agents:
Los Angeles Rams CB: Darious Williams
Tampa Bay CB: Carlton Davis
Cincinatti FS: Jessie Bates III
The team needs to get younger in all of their positional groups. This is not a very good defensive line and linebacker free agent class so I focused on the secondary. Darious Williams has found a resurgence playing across All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey down in Los Angeles, after being waived by the Ravens in 2018. The 28-year-old will not be particularly expensive compared to other corner-back free agents like J.C. Jackson or Stephon Gilmore, which will fit well with the Eagles’ current cap situation. Carlton Davis is also another great fit for the Eagles in terms of the cap situation. The 25-year-old will fit right in with Avonte Maddox and Darius Slay to help bolster the secondary.
Both Eagles’ safeties Anthony Harris and Rodney McLeod will be free agents this year. I don’t expect the Eagles to re-sign them after this season as they look to get younger in the safety positional group as well. Cincinnati Bengals’ safety Jessie Bates III has been playing like a top five safety this year. If the Eagles manage to sign Bates, it will serve wonders for their secondary and defense. It would be difficult to sign all three free agents, therefore if they are able to sign one, it would be beneficial for the team.
The Draft
Within the first round, the Eagles are projected to select in these spots:
Round 1.15 via Miami:
Round 1.16 via Indianapolis:
Round 1.17:
Even if the Eagles manage to sign a premier free agent in the secondary, I do anticipate them drafting another one in the draft. I currently rate their top needs as EDGE, ILB, CB, WR.
Round 1.15: David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan
As mentioned above, the Eagles need long-term pass-rushing help, and Ojabo can solve that problem. While Josh Sweat is locked up with a long-term deal, and Brandon Graham is expected to return after a lost season due to injury, the Eagles need to reinforce their rotation with Derek Barnett likely to leave in free agency and Ryan Kerrigan unlikely to return as well.
Ojabo is coming off an impressive junior season, as he posted 35 tackles, 11 sacks, and five forced fumbles for the Wolverines. He will probably see his stock rise over the next few months, but if the Eagles manage to snag him here, this seems like a slam-dunk selection for the 6-foot-5, 250-pound pass rusher from Nigeria. He can rotate behind and learn from Graham, a fellow Michigan alum, and potentially become his replacement.
Round 1.16: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Lloyd is a dynamic linebacker who can come in and immediately fill the WILL spot opposite T.J. Edwards, allowing Alex Singleton or Davion Taylor to play the SAM/OTTO role in sub-packages. Lloyd can make plays in space, and he has exceptional sideline to sideline speed. This season, the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year linebacker recorded 106 tackles, 8 sacks, and 4 interceptions for Utah.
Round 1.19: Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
An exceptional athlete who plays with very good reactive athleticism, hips, and short-area quickness, McCreary is a willing wrap-up tackler in the run game and this projects well for his versatility to kick inside. With his versatility to succeed in both man and zone coverage, the Eagles will be ecstatic to select McCreary here to bolster their secondary. Pairing him alongside Slay on the outside will result in a dynamic corner duo, with McCreary eventually taking over the CB1 spot on the depth chart.
Other First Rounders to Target
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
All-time great Eagle’s center Jason Kelce performed really well this season. However, he is 34 and in the final year of his contract. If the opportunity presents itself, the Eagles can draft Linderbaum to serve as his replacement and bolster the offensive line. He lacks positional flexibility which may reduce his draft stock but can immediately be plugged in here to replace the 4x First-Team All-Pro.
Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
An elite cornerback prospect who never gave up a touchdown in his collegiate career, Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner has terrific ball skills to lock up opposing wide receivers. He excels in a zone coverage scheme where he thrives in layering coverage, squeezing routes, and working into throwing windows. His run defense is also above average which contributes to his overall player profile. Look for the Eagles to target him immediately if he falls down the board.
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
The Eagles need some big-time help in the defensive backfield and Brisker is a great place to start. A super-athletic safety with ball skills galore, electric tackling ability, and positional versatility, he is the best safety after Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton. Safeties Rodney McLeod and Anthony Harris have alternated between mediocre and poor this season. As mentioned above, both are free agents after this season and Brisker is a polished, physical playmaker with few holes in his game.
The future of this historic franchise relies on their ability to improve on their strengths and weaknesses, develop their young core, and capitalize on draft picks. The upcoming offseason will be crucial in determining the state of the rebuild, as it is currently progressing quicker than expected. The decisions the organization makes will decide whether they pave their way to contention next season, or fall into the void of mediocrity. Even though the Eagles lost in the Wild Card round to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Philadelphia Eagles have a bright future ahead of them.
Fly Eagles Fly!
